International Wood Market Forecast for 2024

European market

In 2023, only three European countries (Germany, Poland, and Russia) entered the list of China's top ten timber suppliers, with Poland's timber exports to China showing the most significant growth, reaching 92.37%. Due to the reduction in production in the timber industry, there has been a significant decrease in oak exports from Europe to China. It is expected that the European market will continue this trend in 2024 until issues such as inflation and a sluggish construction industry are resolved.

In 2023, Russia has been trying to open up new markets, among which the number of timber exported to Türkiye has increased by 2.3 times to 280000 cubic meters; The quantity of timber exported to the United Arab Emirates increased by 64% to 490000 cubic meters, but China remains the main importer of Russian timber. Due to the increase in central bank interest rates, the cost of Russian credit currency is also constantly increasing, and it is expected to increase operational pressure on the Russian timber industry in 2024.

African market

In the context of slowing demand in the Chinese market, the amount of timber exported from Africa to China in 2023 has decreased by nearly a quarter compared to 2022, to only 2.57 million cubic meters; As a major supplier of timber, Gabon's timber supply in the Enco Special Economic Zone has decreased by nearly 50% due to issues such as transportation, rising fuel costs, and strikes (60% of Gabon's processed timber exports come from the Enco Special Economic Zone).

Although the new government of Gabon has also proposed significant reforms to the Enco Special Economic Zone, it is expected that the problem of reduced timber production in Gabon will continue in the first half of the year. If China resumes its original import demand for African timber in the first half of the year, import cost prices may increase.

Oceania market

Australia officially resumed its log export trade with China starting from May 18, 2023. Starting from the second half of the year, more and more Australian logs have been successfully exported to China through legal channels. However, starting from January 1, 2024, regions such as Victoria in Australia have banned the logging of native forests, forcing local timber merchants to purchase and transport from other regions, which has to some extent increased the pressure on timber and operating costs.

It is expected that in 2024, the problem of insufficient wood supply in Australia will gradually become apparent, and as cost prices continue to increase, it may trigger other problems, making it difficult for timber trade with China to return to its previous levels in the short term.

New Zealand is the country with the highest timber exports to China in 2023, with a total of 18.23 million cubic meters. However, due to the slowdown in demand in the Chinese market, the price of logs exported from New Zealand to China experienced a nearly 5-month decline in 2023. It was not until the end of 2023 that the price of logs imported from New Zealand to Hong Kong increased after China's imports of logs rebounded. Based on current market analysis, it is expected that this upward trend will continue until the first quarter of 2024.

North American Market

In 2023, the United States remains Canada's largest timber export market, but its insistence on setting high tariffs on Canadian cork products has prevented many builders from reducing procurement costs.

At the beginning of this year, China once again extended tariff exemptions for some American broad-leaved timber (oak, cherry, and white wax). Based on recent import trends, it is predicted that the first half of 2024 will be a period of concentrated arrival of North American oak, cherry, and white wax and other timber species. During the tariff exemption period, if the United States can ensure normal wood production, it is expected that the prices of these types of wood will not fluctuate too much.

2023 is a nightmare for Canadian forestry. Since the spring, there have been over 6500 fires in Canada, with a total of 45.7 million acres (18.5 million hectares) of land burned, breaking the previous annual record by nearly three times. The area has spread from Nova Scotia in the east to British Columbia in the west.

However, according to customs data, there has been no significant change in Canada's timber exports to China in 2023, and it is expected that a stable timber trade relationship will be maintained between Canada and China in the coming year.

South American market

With the efforts of the new Brazilian government, deforestation in the Amazon rainforest has been controlled in 2023, and timber production has also decreased compared to 2022; After experiencing a long period of price increases, the international market for Brazilian timber prices has finally gradually stabilized by the end of 2023.

At the same time, with the slowdown in demand in the Chinese market, Brazil's timber exports to China have decreased by 41.15% to 716900 cubic meters. It is expected that under the reasonable control of the government's Amazon Forest, Brazil's timber exports to China will not have a significant increase in 2024.

The Vietnamese market experienced a long period of "order gap" in 2023 and only began to recover in the fourth quarter. However, these orders are all short-term and cannot fully drive the development of the Vietnamese timber industry. Overall, the Vietnamese timber industry is still overly reliant on the international market. If there is no significant increase in orders from Europe and America in 2024, the Vietnamese timber industry will return to a "trough" period.

It was originally predicted that in 2023, the Chinese timber market would recover under the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control policies, but in fact, the annual timber import volume (65.79 million m) ³) Not as good as 2022 (70.07 million meters) ³)， And starting from the second half of the year, import demand continued to decline until the fourth quarter when it began to recover. Based on previous years, the demand for wood in the domestic market will become apparent in the second quarter, and timber merchants can closely monitor the market situation after the holiday.